Why we need an Independent Commission on Sustainable Development Progress: A modest proposal

The United Nations was already on the back foot before world leaders learned that they would need to prepare for another four years of Donald J. Trump. Perceptions that a ‘perfect storm’ of cascading crises had outstripped the UN system’s response capacity were widespread prior to the recent escalation of conflicts in the Middle East and Africa. Coupled with the UN Secretary-General’s bleak 2023 assessment of progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the disappointingly anaemic outcome of COP 29, it is clear that the organization is on the rocks. Opinion writers now routinely characterize the UN as a spent force that has rapidly diminished in power and credibility.

Members of the UN Secretariat have attempted to put a brave face on all the recent challenges and failings related to sustainable development. They have amped up the level of moral indignation in their communications, and have redoubled their efforts to secure additional commitments to financing the Global Goals. The UN has also repackaged its SDG ambitions into a future-oriented action plan. However, these palliatives derive entirely from the organization’s standard crisis management playbook. Whether any of these strategies retain any relevance whatsoever during these distinctly non-normal times remains a very open question. Scaled up hand-wringing over hoped for outcomes like ‘no poverty’, ‘zero hunger’, or veritable ‘climate action’ also assumes that the UN’s sustainable development house is built on a solid foundation.

Unfortunately, that specific assumption is now the Achilles’ heel of the SDGs. Widespread belief in the mostly nice-sounding goals now risks obscuring the fact that a clear path to achieving the Global Goals has not yet been articulated. If we are to have any hope of achieving the goals, a concerted effort to recalibrate the targets that aim to bolster their implementation and redesign the indicators that intend to assess progress must be made as soon as possible.

The idea that the SDGs are backstopped and driven by good data is seductive but highly misleading. There is no doubt that many slick data visualizations related to the 169 SDG targets and 232 unique indicators have been accessibly produced and widely disseminated. The well-intentioned drive to generate data to help people address the world’s biggest problems has nonetheless assumed away the politics associated with building a better world. This drive for data has similarly disregarded the reality that many SDG targets contain ill-defined terminology or work toward contradictory ends. For example, SDG 7.1 on universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy does not offer any guidance related to the definition of affordable or modern energy. As my new book on the SDGs shows in painstaking detail, many other targets are riddled with similarly sloppy language that is having big political ramifications for the uptake of the 2030 Agenda. Moreover, the indicators associated with many of the SDG targets often do not cover all aspects of the stated aspirations. In other words, the metrics that aim to help us to chart progress toward our ideal future are far from comprehensive.

Moving beyond the yawning gap between our hope for happy outcomes and our deficient systems for advancing and measuring progress will require serious attention to politics. We must rein in the conventional wisdom that our current systems are apolitical and the best available. We must dispassionately reinvent the SDG wheel to move the needle on transformative change. And at a time of rising populist authoritarianism, we can and must do better to analyze the politics of the Global Goals and the politics that can hold them back.

I have developed a zero draft of my thoughts on one possible way that we can collaborate to break the current sustainable development impasse. This modest proposal aims to rapidly scale up truly independent and collaborative scientific work on sustainable development challenges. History shows that at times when politics has constrained progress on development ideals, visionary global leaders have attempted to break the stalemate through empowering independent commissions to reset the course. Similarly bold action is required to redress the complex political factors and threats that are currently impeding the 2030 Agenda and undermining global institutions.

In a nutshell, a scientific commission composed of seventeen commissioners/researchers from a broad range of scientific disciplines would sit at the apex of this effort. This Independent Commission on Sustainable Development Progress would work to assess the politics of the goals and unpack the politics of the present impasse. The commission would also be tasked with redeveloping the SDG targets and indicators. To assist with this work, seventeen working groups would be formed. Each of these working groups would be composed of leading researchers and critics of progress on the relevant goal. To the side of this effort, a small political cabinet composed of former heads of government, foreign ministers, and former directors-general of international organizations would engage in wide-ranging consultations to identify political challenges and possible ways forward. This work, and the work of the commission more generally, would be backstopped by a small technical secretariat.

I am hyperaware that this proposal will be characterized by many as being ridiculously pie in the sky. But I am convinced that it is the only way that we can work together across borders to salvage the goals and bolster cooperation for truly sustainable development. Canada is currently in a very strong position to fund and support the development and operation of the entity that I propose below.

ZERO DRAFT: A (truly) Independent Commission on Sustainable Development Progress

Mandate

Non-partisan and with no vested interest in the national and international statistics status quo, the ICSDP endeavours reinvent the SDG wheel. The ICSDP will take stock of the barriers facing efforts to achieve the SDGs across all seventeen goals. It aims to redesign the targets that direct progress toward the 17 SDGs through cutting out the contradictions, defining terms, and removing political assumptions and biases. The ICSDP will also identify a range of relevant indicators for each SDG target that is far more scientifically robust than the current SDG indicators. With a small technical secretariat at its disposal, the ICSDP will feature a small political cabinet that will be responsible facilitating country-level consultations related to the political factors that continue to impede progress on the SDGs. The political cabinet will also be responsible for mobilizing the knowledge (i.e., new targets, indicators, visualizations, and strategies) produced by the commission. Knowledge mobilization will take the form of websites, open-source knowledge products and a book/report of the Independent Commission. The political cabinet will have no narrative control over the scientific innovations proposed by the Independent Commission itself. However, the commission is free to draw upon the political cabinet’s expertise at any time.

The apex arm of the ICSDP will be a roundtable composed of seventeen commissioners from diverse scientific and research backgrounds. The Independent Commission will convene seventeen working groups – one for each of the SDGs – composed of leading researchers with mandates to: (i) identify current impediments to progress; (ii) identify limitations of the current SDG targets and indicators; and (iii) suggest alternative ways to direct and measure progress. The commissioners will be responsible for acting on feedback from the working groups about knowledge needs, for aggregating materials produced by members of each working group, and for working to identify contradictions, synergies, alignments, and opportunities for harmonization across each of the goals. The commissioners on the scientific commission will be particularly attentive to developing new metrics that are designed to address specific data gaps or progress failures identified by the working groups. Drawing upon insights from philosophy through cosmology, the commission will ultimately rework the sustainable development agenda and offer a path forward that if implemented would expedite SDG progress.

Composition

Below I offer the names [in brackets] of some of the individuals that I believe would be highly qualified to serve in the indicated roles for this proposed collaborative research effort. Please send an email to asneyd@uoguelph.ca with the subject line “GET STUFFED” if you would like me to remove your name from this proposed research dream team:

Political Cabinet

Chair [Jacinda Ardern]

Cabinet Member [suggestions required]

Emeritus Member [Marilyn Waring]

17 Members of the Independent Commission

“Check your egos at the door!” (Quincy Jones)

Dream Team Commissioners

Scientific Director (full secondment) [TBD]

Commissioner, [Jean-Philippe Uzan]

Commissioner, [Pavel Wiegmann]

Commissioner, [Sakari Saaritsa]

Commissioner, [Daniel Mugge]

Commissioner, [Gloria Novovic]

Commissioner, [Naomi Hossain]

Commissioner, [Mindi Schneider]

Commissioner, [Philippe Lassou]

Commissioner, [Robert Huish]

Commissioner, [Carlos Lopes]

Commissioner, [Mariana Mazzucatto]

Commissioner, [Franklin Obeng-Odoom]

Commissioner, [Kohei Saito]

Commissioner, [Ruby Dagher]

Commissioner, [Tolu Oni]

Commissioner, [Jessica Thorn]

Working Groups on each of the 17 SDGs

Working Group 1 – [Andrew Fischer + Philip Alston + 6]

Working Group 2 – [Jennifer Clapp + William Moseley + 6]

Working Group 3 – [Robert Huish + Soerge Kelm + 6]

Working Group 4 – [Sam Hickey + April Biccum + 6]

Working Group 5 – [Candace Johnson + Uma Kothari + Sara Stevano +

Tanya Jakimow + Haroon Akram-Lodhi + 3]

Working Group 6 – [Jampel Dell’Angelo + Larry Swatuk + 6]

Working Group 7 – [Philippe Le Billon + 7]

Working Group 8 – [Jason Hickel + Tim Jackson + Giorgos Kallis + 5]

Working Group 9 – [Charis Enns + Jesse Ovadia + 6]

Working Group 10 – [Keston Parry + Tom Burgis + 6]

Working Group 11 – [Susanne Soederberg + 7]

Working Group 12 – [Rosie Collington + Stefano Ponte +

Peter Dauvergne + Maria Hengeveld + 4]

Working Group 13 – [Simon Dalby + Jessica Green + 6]

Working Group 14 – [Noella Gray + 7]

Working Group 15 – [Robin Roth + Eve Bratman +

Denis Sonwa + Meredith Gore + 4]

Working Group 16 – [Frank Biermann + Stephen Brown +

Kristina Jönsson + 5]

Working Group 17 – [Sanjay Reddy + Ingrid Kvangraven +

Carolina Cristina Alves + Alex Cobham +4]

Secretariat

-director of operations [full open search for CEO w science initiative CEO credentials]

-administrative support for directors

-administrative support for 17 commissioners

-administrative support for 17 working groups

-administrative

-IT/technical support

-director of finance

-administrative support for finance

-co-director of data science – outreach to Our World in Data/social

[Ryan Briggs]

-co-director of data science – outreach to IPCC/environmental

[Ryan Katz-Rosene]

-PhD & postdoctoral fellows [competition-based]

-co-director of data science – AI & visualization lead/Silicon Valley

[open search]

-director of communications [James Schneider/David Salt/]

-video content [Ward 1 studios] + social + press release

-podcast: [David Peck]

Four Year Program of Work/Deliverables

Year One

activate secretariat (hires/secondments/half & full buyouts
compose commission (half secondments/half buy-outs)
commissioners develop program of work for commission, political cabinet and working groups, and define terms for secretariat
secretariat not fully in place until commission defines terms of reference & hires in place
commissioners work to compose seventeen working groups by six-month mark
working groups commence regular bi-weekly meetings
once per month each working group is visited by rotating groups of three commissioners to take stock of knowledge needs/report back
from six-month mark:
secretariat fully operational
commission commences work to identify global challenges related to progress, and to clean up the targets and indicators
commission conducts bi-monthly meetings and commences program of work
commissioners take action on specific individual areas of responsibility
political cabinet in place
political cabinet begins country level consultations
commissioners placed on country-level missions in response to working group/political cabinet knowledge needs
outreach

Year Two

commissioners continue monthly working group follow-up for first six months
working groups complete recommendations by six-month mark
commission develops global knowledge mobilization and communication strategy for the remaining duration of the project by six-month mark
political cabinet completes consultations by six-month mark
political cabinet continues to conduct consultation based on knowledge needs identified by the commission over the course of the year
members of commission continue to accompany/pursue own missions depending on knowledge/data needs identified
commission finalizes analysis of global problems, targets, indicators by the end of year two and presents initial findings to working group chairs for feedback
commissioners work with secretariat and its co-directors of data science to develop new visualizations and metrics

Year Three

commission revises analyses and proposals, and moves to develop full draft of recommendations
full draft by six-month mark and draft to the publisher and to website staging
full plan for Year 4 engagement with national and international statistics agencies and organizations developed by six months
political cabinet continues outreach activities now more honed to cultivating uptake of the commission's approach to addressing problems, or developing new targets or metrics
selective sharing of possible new data visualization strategies
knowledge product development commences
commissioners work with secretariat co-directors of data-science and communications to finalize visualizations, metrics

Year Four

phased roll out of global knowledge mobilization and communications strategy commences
political commission and scientific commission execute their roles in the plan
stats agencies at national and international level briefed and consulted
call to action for all relevant stakeholders
identify early adopters and champion/lobby on that basis
commission remains particularly attentive to getting science-based perspectives into policy and practice at all levels

Back-of-Envelope Budget [+/-$80 million CAD]

Buy-outs/secondments/stipends for below categories

$150000 half-time buyouts for 16 commissioners and full secondment + stipend for lead commissioner x 4 years
$100000 research stipend/buy-out for working group chairs x 17 x 1 year
$100000 x 17 working groups to be divided to into individual stipends for these small groups (8-10 leading research scientists on each goal)

Commission Research and business travel budget

for all one-off travel and the operations of the 17 commissioners, including country-level work with political cabinet $2.5 million x 4 years

Working Group Research budgets

$500000 x 17 for any surveys or other country-level interview/focus group etc. research that working groups determine are necessary to build their own recommendations

Political cabinet budget

stipends for former heads of government/foreign ministers/D-Gs of IOs 5 x 200000 x 4 years
business travel budget $1 million x 4 years

Secretariat budget

director salaries and secondments
operations, finance, data science (x 3), communications $150-200000 total comp x 6 x 4 years
data science postdoctoral and doctoral fellow competition resources $100000 PDF (x6) and $75000 DF (3) x 4 years
data science-specific research budget $1 million x 4 years
operations – including commission and working group meetings x 4 years
other events – x 4 years
discretionary/contingency budget- x 4 years

Please send all comments and feedback to asneyd@uoguelph.ca with the subject line: “TELL HIM HE’S DREAMING.” Please also feel free to disseminate widely and cite/use/abuse/trash this open-source proposal. We can and must do better for sustainable development!!